GoogleInc. is expected to surpass rival Facebook Inc. in selling online "display" advertisements in the U.S. this year, according to a new estimate by research firm eMarketer Inc.
The result would mark a milestone for the Web-search giant, with Google for the first time holding the "triple crown" of online advertising by taking the top spot in Web-search ads, mobile ads and display ads, which include graphical, interactive and video ads.
EMarketer, whose estimates are closely watched, said in a new report that Google is expected to generate net display-ad revenue of $2.31 billion, or 15.4% of the total U.S. market this year, up from $1.38 billion, or 13.5% market share, in 2011. The revenue figures exclude payments, known as "traffic acquisition costs," that Google makes to its partner sites.
Meanwhile, eMarketer lowered its estimates for Facebook's online display ad revenue. The social network is expected to generate $2.16 billion in net display revenue this year, or 14.4% of the U.S. market. That figure is up from $1.74 billion last year, but down from eMarketer's previous estimate of Facebook producing $2.58 billion this year.
In a statement, Google Vice President Neal Mohan said, "We're seeing strong growth in our brand business. Measurement and creative formats are top of mind for clients these days." Facebook declined to comment.
Advertising executives said the eMarketer estimates are something of a surprise given that Google is best known for its search ads. Google's rise in display ads is a "testament to the fact that they have set an objective and have been focused on delivering against it," said David Cohen, an executive vice president at advertising agency UM, a unit of Interpublic Group of Cos, whose clients buy ads on both Google and Facebook.
He added that Facebook is "making headway in proving their impact for advertisers."
In February, eMarketer estimated that Facebook would capture 16.8% of the market, with Google taking 16.5%. EMarketer said it revised its forecast for both companies because of lower-than-expected prices for display ads this year and the "reluctance of some major brands to make extra-large investments in digital display advertising."
In recent years, Google has leveraged its strength in selling search ads into selling display ads on its YouTube video site and millions of non-Google sites.
In January, Google Chief Executive Larry Page said growth in Google's sale of display ads was accelerating and was on pace to generate $5 billion annually in world-wide revenue, or well over 10% of Google's overall revenue.
Both Google and Facebook have grabbed market share from longtime leaders Yahoo Inc. and AOL Inc. Google has spent more than $4 billion to buy display-ad technology companies such as DoubleClick and to develop the DoubleClick Ad Exchange, which matches advertisers that want to buy ad space with websites that want to sell it. More recently, Google has built or acquired tools for advertisers to efficiently buy across thousands of sites and for publishers to maximize their yield.